Scientists for NASA and Russia have produced conflicting reports about the probability of the asteroid Apophis hitting the Earth. Apophis, which is 270 meters or 900 feet long, is large enough to be considered a planet killer. The predicted date for Apophis to hit Earth is 2036.

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Crash Possibilities

Apophis is the size of two football fields. The analysis done by NASA in 2004 says that it will pass close to Earth on April 13, 2029. Close, but not close enough to impact the planet.

Russian scientists have taken the analysis one step further. They say, there is a possibility of Apophis traveling through a gravitational keyhole, which would affect it's orbit enough to put it on a collision course with Earth on April 13, 2036.

Since the gravitational keyhole is a precisely situated region in space, about the size of the asteroid itself, the odds for this to happen are miniscule.

The head of NASA's Near Earth Object Program, Donld Yeomans, said that while technically the Russian’s analysis was right, the most likely scenario puts Apophis close to Earth during late 2012 and early 2013. The asteroid will be closely observed by radar systems and ground based telescopes.

If, and it's a really big if, the telemetry of the asteroid is changed, NASA will come up with the means and the machinery to deflect it. NASA has reasons to believe they can change the path of the asteroid if necessary. Their innovations have actually changed the telemetry of the comet Temple 1, by smashing the spacecraft, Deep Impact into it. A little nudge, in space, goes a long way.

Marsha Gellerman
Writer for JH Gellerman.com